Great question. Here's the math I do in my head when I think about this:
In the previous cycle, bitcoin did about a 3.5x from the previous cycle's peak ($20k --> $68.7k). If this were to happen again, we could see bitcoin at $238k by the end of the cycle. I don't think this will necessarily happen, though. But even if bitcoin just does a 2x from its previous cycle's peak, it reaches $137.4k, which is right in the middle of that range you shared. So, to answer your question, you should always be cautious, as nothing is guaranteed to happen come the next bitcoin halving other than the supply of being issued being cut in half. However, based on bitcoin's price history, a $100-150k bitcoin seems like a realistic target for the next cycle.
During the first bull cycle, there seemed to be a double top where the price went from teens to breaking a 100 and then it pumped to breaking a 1000 all within a year. With the new players in this space, ie institutions and possible sovereign nations, I could see this double push in this cycle. Take a closer look at that first bull run and lmk what you think.
All right, maybe more like 107 years. I have taken a look at that first bull run, and I think things could easily start moving in that direction. I think this run will be more of the institutions-coming-on-board run and the 2025 run will be more of the sovereign nation run. We shall see, though, my friend! Thanks for reading and thanks for the comment.
Thank you for reading, John. I highly recommend reading it if you get the chance. It’s broken into about 10-page chapters. I’ve taken a chapter-a-day approach to reading it, it’s been helpful to read it slowly and to take the time to digest it.
Ten-page chapters sound just right for me! Nice layout in your article - love how you segmented it. Bookmarked this for reference - this is a valuable summary with great links. Drake says hi, by the way.
"Yes, I am aware that I will probably choke on those words when and if these models break down."
With this in now in the rear-view mirror, how cautious should we be about everyone projecting $100-150K BTC, post halving?
Great question. Here's the math I do in my head when I think about this:
In the previous cycle, bitcoin did about a 3.5x from the previous cycle's peak ($20k --> $68.7k). If this were to happen again, we could see bitcoin at $238k by the end of the cycle. I don't think this will necessarily happen, though. But even if bitcoin just does a 2x from its previous cycle's peak, it reaches $137.4k, which is right in the middle of that range you shared. So, to answer your question, you should always be cautious, as nothing is guaranteed to happen come the next bitcoin halving other than the supply of being issued being cut in half. However, based on bitcoin's price history, a $100-150k bitcoin seems like a realistic target for the next cycle.
great work Frank!
157 years!! Lol.
During the first bull cycle, there seemed to be a double top where the price went from teens to breaking a 100 and then it pumped to breaking a 1000 all within a year. With the new players in this space, ie institutions and possible sovereign nations, I could see this double push in this cycle. Take a closer look at that first bull run and lmk what you think.
Thanks for the nice article. I enjoyed it!
All right, maybe more like 107 years. I have taken a look at that first bull run, and I think things could easily start moving in that direction. I think this run will be more of the institutions-coming-on-board run and the 2025 run will be more of the sovereign nation run. We shall see, though, my friend! Thanks for reading and thanks for the comment.
Thanks, Frank. Always wanted to read Meditations myself.
Thank you for reading, John. I highly recommend reading it if you get the chance. It’s broken into about 10-page chapters. I’ve taken a chapter-a-day approach to reading it, it’s been helpful to read it slowly and to take the time to digest it.
Ten-page chapters sound just right for me! Nice layout in your article - love how you segmented it. Bookmarked this for reference - this is a valuable summary with great links. Drake says hi, by the way.
Thank you, man. Much appreciated. I wanted it to be a resource that can be easily processed and understood. Hey, Drake!