Where We at?
Will This Part of the Bitcoin Halving Cycle Play out Like Previous Cycles?
Late-2021 through 2022 was a rough year or so for bitcoin (BTC) (and crypto) holders, especially if you measure your BTC in US dollars (USD).
The good news is that BTC has been through these downtrends before — in 2014 and 2018 — and has come out stronger on the other side each time.
Historically, BTC’s price action has revolved around its halving cycle.
From late 2013 through early 2015 — about two years after Bitcoin’s first halving — BTC’s price dropped from approximately US$1164 to about US$154.
Less than two years later, one BTC sold for just under US$20,000 (before dropping to almost US$3k within the following year. This, again, occurred approximately two years after Bitcoin’s second halving.)
I provided more info about these rises and falls in BTC’s price in the following piece I recently wrote for Mediafeed: “Is It Time to Sell Your Bitcoin?”
In the piece, I detailed one strategy for how you might want to dollar-cost average (DCA) out of your BTC as its price rises.
More on the strategy of dollar-cost averaging into and out of a BTC position in a piece I wrote for Finder here: “5 tips to maximize your crypto dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy”
I also detailed the history of BTC’s price action in the following piece I recently wrote for Finder: “Is crypto a good investment?”
This report includes some cool charts that I made, including the following one:
The Mooch reinforces one of the key points I made in the piece in his quote featured in the tweet below:
(What screams “trust” louder than Trump’s former press secretary with a big orange magic internet money symbol looming in the background behind him? Right? RIGHT?!)
Before we move on, please note that I’m not telling you to sell your BTC, because I’m not a financial advisor and nothing in this newsletter is financial advice.
I’m just providing a historical overview of BTC’s price action to help you make the most informed decisions possible regarding your BTC investment.
Real Talk Corner
Just going to fire off some thoughts related to BTC’s price and the potential dangers around buying and selling the asset in the coming months here:
My gut says we see BTC drop back under US$20k before the next halving cycle begins (though, I could very well be wrong about that)
I wouldn’t be surprised if Brain-Dead Joe and the Politboro (Band name? Of course it is. Boom.) try to blow the on- and off-ramps to Bitcoin and crypto AKA they make it much harder if not impossible for Americans to exchange their fiat for Bitcoin/crypto and vice versa
Market psychology tip: Let’s say BTC goes back about $40k in the next few months. This means that the value of the asset has risen more than 150% in less than a year — despite trying financial and economic circumstances. You might think to yourself “But I haven’t made that much money yet” or “I’m still underwater in my investment”. I’m simply here to say that the market doesn’t care. It’s good to take some profits (especially if you need the money in the short- to mid-term) after an asset has risen 150% in value. Again, this isn’t financial advice. It’s just me thinking out loud
Are we still in BTC accumulation zone? Personally, I don’t think so, and I won’t be adding to my position for now. BTC’s price in USD up over 100% off the lows, and I think we’re heading lower at some point before the price benefits around the next halving — which is scheduled for about a year from now — fully kick in
We may still melt up. I haven’t abandoned the melt-up thesis. I still believe we will see a melt-up in the prices of many assets, followed by a major crash that will bring the S&P 500 to about 1,900. Bitcoin will likely come down in price drastically if/when this happens. Will it definitely happen? No. It seems logical to me that it will, though
Stop the RESTRICT Act
You may have heard about the US government’s trying to ban TikTok in the US via the RESTRICT Act (I’m so old I remember when the US government used to try to put a positive spin on bills that proposed a limiting of your rights as an American — see the Patriot Act. Now we’re straight up just telling fools in the name of bills that we’re trying to take freedoms away from them.)
Much of the language in the RESTRICT Act is vague and can be interpreted in a variety of manners.
Some the language could be interpreted in a way that restricts VPN use (punishing those who continue to use VPNs with up to 20 years in prison), and some of it seems to be aimed at crypto and the legality of engaging with crypto protocols and websites.
Really gross stuff.
Learn more about how gross it is by reading the following two articles:
“ACLU Raises Concerns about Senate Bill Aimed at Banning TikTok” (ACLU)
“The RESTRICT Act Would Restrict a Lot More Than TikTok” (Reason)
And if you, too, agree that its gross after you read the above articles, do what this good-looking gent below says and contact your Senators and Congresspeople to let them know that they must vote “no” regarding the RESTRICT Act.
(Please note: I made a small error in this video. I thought the the House had already voted on the act, but it hadn’t yet.)
Or listen to what this far better looking Congresswoman has to say about why it seems a bit strange the the US government all of a sudden wants to go after TikTok — despite the fact that no one in Congress has yet been briefed by members of national security agencies about why it’s a threat.
Tiktok failed to load.Enable 3rd party cookies or use another browser
Again, this act likely has little to do with TikTok and much more to do with limiting Americans’ access to certain realms of the internet (*cough* crypto-related sites *cough*).
If you don’t want your access to these sites limited, let your representatives hear your voice.
And on that note, I’m outie. I have to go relax my emotions after binge watching Beef this weekend.
Happy Easter to all those who celebrate and happy sunshine, love and rainbows to everyone — except Janet Yellen.
Best,
Frank
Twitter: @frankcorva
