A Bitcoin Presidential Candidate
And Introducing My Buddy Selly's Chartistry
On April 19, 2023, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. — the son of the late Senator Robert Kennedy, nephew of the late President John K. Kennedy and Senator Ted Kennedy — announced his bid for President of the United States.
My first thought upon hearing his messaging around Bitcoin: “Why has it taken a prominent Democrat so long to come out and speak the truth like this?”
Well, at least now one has.
I know who I’ll be throwing my weight behind in the coming primary — that is, if the US government doesn’t kill him (like it did his uncle) first.
And for everyone whose reading this saying to themselves, “Oh, but he’s just some anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist loon!” I say to you:
You’re a loser.
Our current president is literally brain dead and being handled by spineless clowns; this guy is a much better option.
If you think this guy isn’t a better choice than Biden or Trump, please go back and see my first bullet point.
Moving on.
Introducing: Chartistry by Selly
My buddy Selman Istar has been sharing some cool charts and info in a Signal chat that I’m in with both him and another good friend of ours.
The latest chart he shared in the chat really jumped out at me, so I asked him if I could share it here in the newsletter.
Luckily, he said yes.
So, I present to you Selman’s most recent chart along with some of his analysis.
In this chart, I’m trying to capture the similarities and differences of the previous bitcoin cycle to the current cycle using the Fibonacci sequence, before then using this information to guess future BTC price action.
I’ll start out with some of the similarities that I noticed. In both cycles it took about 16 months to break above the downtrend line. The previous cycle had a steeper decline, which led to a steep retracement that reached the 0.618 level — about ~$13k from a low in the $3k range.
One difference in this current cycle as compared to the last is the downtrend line is at a more acute angle of 40 degrees instead of the 45 degrees we saw in 2018. This more gradual bear market has given way to a more gradual recovery.
The previous cycle’s recovery angle was an impressive 70 degrees. In this cycle, it’s about 50 degrees. With this in mind, I’m assuming the 0.618 fib retracement level will not be reached at ~$48k but most likely the reversion to the mean will top out at the 0.50 level at around $43k.
I call this, the flat basketball pattern (Editor’s note: I love this term) — where each bounce from here will offer slightly less return as bitcoin moves forward and matures.
If we use the previous cycle as a roadmap, we should spend most of the next year between $27k and $35k. There is a possibility to trade this local high and try to add to your bag. I personally am thinking on selling 10% of my bitcoin position a the 0.50 fib retracement level and flipping into some alts a few months later. I call that the give-and-go (Editor, again: Fun term, as well)
The subdued returns should continue on deeper into this cycle, and when the time comes to post a new ATH, then I think we also take another step down the fib extensions are top out around 2.618 level sometime in the year 2025. I’d be happy to unload a little before that level too!
Ultimately, when I look at this chart I see basketball game where the ball is flat and the best way to win is the give-and-go play. What do you see?
Let Selly know what you see in the comments and go follow him on Twitter!
I’ll start by sharing what I see.
Generally, I see eye-to-eye with Selman when it comes to bitcoin maybe hitting about $42k in the near term. Personally, whatever I sell if we get to those levels will remain in cash for me, though.
I do think we revisit maybe $16k or a bit lower if and when financial markets experience the major deflationary event AKA big crash that I think they’ll experience before the year is out.
All of these recent bank failures will likely lead to some sort of bigger collapse. Not sure what that might look like or when that might happen, though.
Generally speaking, I think being involved in any financial markets right now is very risky.
Will some sort of crash definitely happen? No.
Is it likely? I think so.
I’m holding onto cash right now to buy what I think will be the mega dip in bitcoin (if US authorities don’t blow the on- and off-ramps to BTC), gold and other commodities.
That’s just me, though. Please don’t take anything I’ve written in this newsletter as financial advice, because it isn’t, and I’m not a financial advisor.
With all that said, I think Selly’s analysis was on point, and I think his chart is super cool.
Thanks for contributing, Selman!
Blockhain Statistics
This week, Finder published a blockchain statistics piece I wrote.
You can check it out here: “Blockchain statistics 2023” (Finder)
If there was one thing I was most surprised to find in my research, it’s that Ethereum sees 3x the daily transaction volume that Bitcoin does.
Lot’s of other cool charts in the piece. Check it out.
Bhutan and Bitcoin
Forbes recently reported that Bhutan has been mining bitcoin.
I offered some thoughts on this in the following video.
To add to what I said in the video, I think we’ll see more and more adoption of Bitcoin on the periphery until it eventually becomes mainstream.
When that happens, the countries, companies and people that were the earliest adopters will be in a much better place financially IMHO.
Alright… Frank the Tank signing off.
Hope you all have a fantastic week!
Best,
Frank
Twitter | LinkedIn | YouTube | MuckRack | Finder | QWOTED
Currently Reading: “Hidden Repressing: How the IMF and the World Bank Sell Exploitation as Development” by Alex Gladstein & “Safehaven: Investing for Financial Storms” by Mark Spitznagel
This is amazing
Best one yet!